"When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't expect to
see a zebra"
Over the last two weeks in Dr. HPK’s clinic, I have seen
many rare diseases, ranging from dermatomyositis, tendinous xanthomas, to
bacterial endocarditis. This is my first time seeing many of these diseases and
I am in awe of Dr. HPK’s ability to so confidently make the diagnosis. I have
found myself wondering: how much time should be devoted to teaching rare
diseases in the medical curriculum? How does one gain the skills necessary to
make the diagnosis of a rare disease? And how many cases of a rare disease must
we see to confidently diagnose?
As I did some reading in the area, I was surprised to see
that novices are much more likely to make the diagnosis of a rare disease. They
are also much more likely to be wrong. This is based on fundamental principles
of cognitive biases known as the “availability heuristic,” that the most easily
remembered diseases are also the most probable. This, combined with the fact that rare
diseases tend to be the most easily recalled by novices (why else would they be
called fascinomas?) suggests that novices are predisposed to making the
diagnosis of a rare disease. Having seen a case of dermatomyositis in the
clinic, I hope that I will not attribute every case of proximal muscle weakness
to this diagnosis.
Rare diseases should really only be taught fleetingly in
medical schools. Medical schools should allot an amount of time to teaching a
specific disease that is directly proportional to the prevalence of that
disease.
Experts can accurately diagnose rare diseases because they
are better able to weigh probabilities and are much more likely to have seen
all of the uncommon presentations of common diseases. They use pattern
recognition much more than the novice clinician, and are therefore usually able
to accurately assign a diagnosis. In this way, experience is the best teacher
of rare disease. Dr. HPK explained to us that you only need to see one single
case of a disease to diagnose it correctly. I think what he meant was that you
only need to see a single case to think of
the disease – diagnosing is much more difficult.
-Carolyn
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